Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
