Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
